This year for the first time ever I’ve decided to watch all of the films nominated for the major Academy Awards. Leading up to the awards I thought I’d talk over each category and each nominee and give my rotted opinions. I’m in my Roger Ebert era, live the fantasy with me or kick rocks.
There are several categories I didn’t cover for one reason or another. My ignorance of the specifics of all that Cinematography and Film Editing entail prevents an informed opinion in those categories. I also skipped the Documentary, International Feature and all Short Film Categories just as a matter of time management and fear of burnout. And I had already seen several nominees for Best Original Score before starting on this project and hadn’t paid close enough attention to adequately judge their score. Maybe next year I’ll get an earlier start and satisfy my completionist vibes.

BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Fave: The Banshees of Inisherin
What Prolly Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Academy employs ranked choice voting in this category. Here’s how I would vote if I were a member:
1 – The Banshees of Inisherin
2 – Everything Everywhere All At Once
3 – Tar
4 – Top Gun: Maverick
5 – Elvis
6 – Women Talking
7 – All Quiet on the Western Front
8 – The Fablemans
9 – Triangle of Sadness
10 – Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Easily my personal favorite of this year, this film is small, subtle and impeccably done. Small and subtle doesn’t typically win Oscars however so this film’s chances of winning are slim but it’s multiple nominations prove it’s a well-loved and respected effort. It’s a deeply affecting film, so well written and the performances stick with you long after the film is done. I hope it gets at least some of the recognition it deserves but the biggest prize of the night seems just out of reach.
Everything Everywhere All At Once
It’s rare to see such a universally loved front runner in this race but EEAAO seems to be everyone’s cup of tea. Or more correctly, everyone’s everything bagel. It truly is the film of the year – unique, vital, engaging, inspiring – and it’s wonderful to see ingenuity recognized and rewarded so heartily. If it is a sign of things to come, Hollywood is moving in the right direction. On top of a fantastic, completely out of the box story, committed, eclectic performances and creative, enthralling visuals the film importantly gets diversity right by centering a minority family in a story that isn’t about what it means to be a minority but simply about what it means to be human. To be a family. If Best Picture is a time capsule rewarding the film that best captures the tone and vibe of the year in which it’s awarded then Everything Everywhere All At Once is the only correct winner.
Tar
In my research and reading I wasn’t too surprised to find that this picture tops the list of the more academic and hifalutin critics. It’s a typical Oscar film, plain and simple, intellectually challenging and thematically complex. The movies aims to make you think rather than entertain although it would be incorrect to say that Cate Blanchett’s incredible performance isn’t entertaining. It is. Awe inspiring even. But the exclusive world of classical music is inaccessible to most audiences so while the film is fully engaging to the mind, it doesn’t really engage the heart. It’s perfect but in a cold and bleak way and is unlikely to move voters the way it’s more sentimental, emotional competitors do.
Top Gun: Maverick
Of all the movies I watched only because of this project, Top Gun: Maverick is the most surprising. I was expecting to be a passive viewer, unaffected by the machismo and masculine energy I assumed was at this movie’s core. Boy was I wrong. I loved it. It brought me back to my ten year old self, absorbing me into the story in a way that I abandoned critical thought and was simply along for the ride. And what a ride! This movie is exciting from top to bottom. And to be sure, this is a movie, not a film. I’ll let you decipher the distinction but usually it comes down to a difference in millions at the box office. I’m a fan of both and for the sake of the Oscars relevance I hope the Academy continues to include more movies in the future.
Elvis
Bad Luhrmann is a take him or leave him, love or hate type of artist mainly due to his distinctive point of view and aesthetic. I’ll take him. Although it’s at time more successful than others, his opulent, kitchen sink style is singular and when it works, it really works. And in Elvis it really, really works. If a personification of opulence ever existed it was Elvis. This perfect marriage of artist and subject make for a kaleidoscopic film, mesmerizing in its pacing and visual depth. Adding to that a strong central performance and this film ticks all the boxes. It’s a worthy competitor but I think the “leave it” contingency will prevent a victory.
Women Talking
My favorite scripts and stories bring out the universal from the specific and this film is such a perfect representation of the concept. This film is little more than a discussion, a group of ladies debating over a very specific decision. Stay or go. But their conversation subversively becomes THE conversation. What it means to have agency. To be human. It is exquisitely performed and directed and superbly written making it a real competitor, albeit a long shot.
All Quiet on the Western Front
This is one the best films I never have to see again. Surprisingly that speaks to the film’s success. It is giving war in all of its brutal, violent, gory glory and the imagery is so indelible it’s burned into my memory making a rewatch unnecessary. It’s a technically perfect film on every level. What it is not is entertaining. I prefer when the Academy award both artistic merit and entertainment value so I’d be disappointed in a win here. However many are reporting that if there is an upset to be had in this race it will be this film.
The Fablemans
This picture made me feel ambivalent. I just couldn’t find a way in. That said I can appreciate its merits – consistently good and even some great performances, complex family drama and impeccable direction. Despite all that I couldn’t relate. Based on the types of films that have won in the past and the industry’s absolute reverence for director Steven Spielberg, the film is a real contender in the category. But a win for the Fablemans would be such a ho hum ending to this project that I really hope it goes almost any other way.
Triangle of Sadness
By all accounts this an outlier in the category and while it is a fun, funny picture it’s pretty rough around the edges. Unlike All Quiet on the Western Front, it overflows with entertainment value but has little in the way of artistic merit. It’s a fun watch but I assume it will fade into irrelevance as soon as its 15 minutes of awards season fame are up.
Avatar: The Way of Water
These films exist as a sort of State of the Industry and in that regard I suppose they are worthy endeavors. We get to see the very latest, most advanced technological capabilities of the film medium and it is undoubtedly impressive. But why do they have to be so boring? And so oppressively long? The storyline is unnecessarily convoluted and overblown. They’ve gone to the greatest lengths to create an entirely new environment in Pandora, is a war story the only way they can think of to feature these gorgeous vistas. Half of the world can’t even empathize with real life wars much less a war between factions in varying shades of blue. It’s off putting for so much “wow” and “who cares” to exists simultaneously in one narrative. A win for this will result in a shoe through my TV screen. Please god no.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Fave: The Banshees of Inisherin
Who Prolly Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Everything Everywhere All At Once
What makes this category interesting it that all the nominees aren’t just credited as director but as screenwriter as well. EEAAO writer-director’s Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, collectively known as The Daniels, have written a complex, complicated even convoluted narrative while directing an efficient, accessible, relatable film. It’s an impressive feat made only more impressive by the incredible cast and creative team they’ve assembled. The Daniels are up against some industry heavy hitters but if it’s ingenuity that Oscar voters are looking for, they are the clear winners.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Directors wear many hats but acting coach is primary among them. This is where Martin McDonough’s strength lies as he has guided his actors into the flawlessly truthful performances that make this film my fave of the season. In addition this is the film that I felt the most immersed in, a kind of esoteric evaluation that can only be attributed to a great director leading a great team. At the end of the film, I felt like I had visited Inisherin and had actually met Padraic and his compatriots, signs of an impeccable artist at the helm. It seems as though McDonough isn’t really even in the running but he remains my fave despite his odds of winning.
The Fablemans
Steven Spielberg. What else really needs to be said. There isn’t another Hollywood figure that inspires more praise or nostalgia. He’s the GOAT and not many people dare to contend otherwise. And this film is of course beautifully directed down to the tiniest detail. And while the story itself is kind of a run of the mill, ho hum family drama, that fact that the beloved auteur is telling his own story has been deemed courageous for whatever reason. I wasn’t particularly gripped by this movie but a win here wouldn’t be a shock by any means.
Tar
This movie really hinges on a collaboration between lead actress Cate Blanchett and writer-director Todd Field. And what an exemplary partnership it is! We are compelled by the almost mythic quality of Lydia Tar from the first moments and as she spirals out we are more and more drawn in. You get the feeling that Field is allowing this performance and this narrative to happen rather than attempting to control it and bend it to his will. Everything about this film is smart including and possibly due to the direction. A win here would be surprising but not at all undeserved.
Triangle of Sadness
This nomination makes the least sense to me. Swedish writer-director Ruben Ostlund presented a quirky, funny, of the moment satire but it doesn’t come off with nearly the polish of the other films here. Women Talking’s Sarah Polley or All Quiet on the Western Front’s Edward Burger would be much more worthy competition for this prize. Ostlund’s prize will no doubt be the nomination alone, whether it’s deserved or not.

BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh
My Fave: Andrea Riseborough
Who Prolly Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Cate Blanchett (Tar)
Blanchett is one of those actors that’s so good it’s hard to even root for her. Her supreme craftsmanship is undeniable but it’s like too perfect; can’t relate. That said this performance is yet another slay. She leaves no crumbs as the kids say. It’s a big brained movie and her performance swings big and consistently connects. It’s a technically perfect performance and possibly even a career best for this beast of an actor.
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
This performance centers a very cool but complicated story so much so that I would’ve been completely lost without her. The variety and versatility required by this role is unbelievable. Henny, they put this queen to work. She remained grounded and truthful in the midst of the chaos and while this film is likely the best of the year, without her it wouldn’t have worked near as well if at all.
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
This is the most controversial nomination of the year, not because it’s undeserved, quite the opposite it is the most raw and shattering of the bunch, but because of the way it came about. To Leslie is a micro budget independent film unable to compete with the major studio multi million dollar For Your Consideration campaigns. A grassroots social media campaign from some of Hollywood’s biggest stars led to this surprise nomination and the establishment wasn’t quite sure what to do about it. The real shame is that the controversy has taken precedent over the strength of the performance which is heartfelt and genuinely lived in. A win for her would be gagalicious but as I said earlier not completely undeserved.
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
As I was watching Blonde I wasn’t sure why this performance deserved a nomination when about 30 minutes in I did my usual IMDb check and realized, ‘holy crap that’s the chick from Knives Out!’ Knowing that I’d been watching a Cuban born actress whose second language was English doing this spot on, uncanny impersonation of Marilyn I was instantly riveted. She’s very good. Trouble is, the movie isn’t. It’s so reductive and hyper sexual, making bizarre choices like speaking fetuses and close up presidential bjs. Just terrible. In my research I noticed a woman’s organization bestowed a “Needs a New Agent” award upon her and I think that sums up the situation perfectly. Not a chance of winning.
Michelle Williams (The Fablemans)
People call Michelle Williams overrated but I keep waiting to dislike her in something. I feel like she is consistently competent and often compelling. She’s technically sound in the role, sporting a nasal, flat mid Atlantic dialect that I live for. She has great chemistry with the young actor standing in for adolescent Stephen Spielberg. Also brutally blunt bangs. It’s a fine performance in a fine film. Overall I don’t think the role gives her enough to do to really compete with the other nominees

BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Austin Butler
My Fave: Colin Farrell
Who Prolly Will Win: Brendan Fraser
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Hot take: I didn’t love this performance. I certainly didn’t hate it but in what may be the tightest race of the year I think Fraser’s work has been more than a little overrated. His physical work is entirely covered up by CGI prosthetics and while I appreciated his quieter, more pedestrian moments I found his “Oscar clip” moments to be try-hard and cringey. I get the whole redemption arc he’s going for and I’m glad he’s working again but he was never known for nuanced, well crafted performances. And as far as I’m concerned – he still isn’t.
Austin Butler (Elvis)
It takes a lot for a Disney-bred teen idol to impress me and as Elvis Austin Butler is doing the most. Connected, grounded scene work, a nuanced interpretation of Elvis rather than an exact impersonation, in addition to competent signing and dancing. They put this kid to work and he tied it all together into a compelling, even riveting portrayal of one of the most popular and well known figures in human history. In the hands of a lesser performer this could have been an absolute train wreck but Butler is able to commit to a perfect mix of disappearing into the character and emerging from it to up the emotional stakes. He’s still got a shot but I think he might have to make do with his Golden Globe.
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
This is easily the most skilled and artful performance in the bunch. I considered Colin Farrell more of a movie star than an actor until this film. But this performance is mesmerizing. It’s fully lived in and soulful and I just can’t say enough nice things about it. Seeing this and then his completely transformative turn as the Penguin in The Batman has significantly raised his status as an artist in my mind. Acting is living truthfully through imaginary circumstances and there is so much truth, so much heart on display in this performance, I’m really hoping Farrell can add the Oscar to his mantle right next to his Golden Globe.
Bill Nighy (Living)
This is a gorgeously British performance in a gorgeously British film. I was shocked to discover that this is Nighy’s first nomination and boy is it well deserved. Elegant, graceful, restrained and understated – this performance is all of these and more which is stunning for an actor known for scene stealing turns in big movies like Love, Actually and Pirates of the Caribbean. The fact the movie didn’t receive more attention is surprising and means a win for Nighy is not likely.
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
I’m not sure if I didn’t like this movie or I didn’t get it. Actually it’s both. And I really don’t get this nomination. His performance is fine, kinda haunting and he’s a charismatic guy. But there’s just not much there. Up against these other exemplary performances his inclusion is a big ol head scratcher. I’d have put Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front) or Gabriel LaBelle (The Fablemans) in this spot way before this performance. Now that we know his name I’ll have to pay attention to what he does next to see what I’m missing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Angela Bassett
My Fave: Hong Chau
Who Prolly Will Win: Angela Bassett
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Ms Bassett is wonderful in this role but this role isn’t what is winning her the Oscar. She’s winning as a testament to her body of work. She’s an icon and a legend and deserves it. Her work in the movie is beyond reproach, almost Shakespearean in its thunder and fury. It’s just the kind of show stealing role this award is made for. I’ll be shocked, gagged and gooped if anyone else gets this trophy.
Hong Chau (The Whale)
This actress is a new favorite of mine as I equally admired her work in The Whale as in last year’s The Menu. She’s wonderful and real in this role, utterly relatable as a caretaker who’s had it with Brendan Fraser’s shit. One of the greatest things about the film is the way it allows its actors’ performances to happen in an organic, slice of life type of way. Her performance is possibly the best in a talented ensemble. She’s a long shot but I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
This is a genuine, truthful performance and the one that anchors this off kilter story. She’s the one character that’s able to break the cycle and make a positive change. It’s a lovely, varied performance demonstrating both extreme affection and frustration for the pig headed and simple minded men that populate her world. A win could be in the cards for her, particularly if Angela Basset and Jamie Lee Curtis split the OG sentimental vote.
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Jamie Lee is great in this movie and she has a similar iconic status to Angela Bassett so she has a chance. The problem is I don’t think this role would’ve been considered if a popular icon weren’t playing it. Sure there are funny moments but it just doesn’t amount to enough to earn her the win. Jamie Lee is truly one the greats of her generation, her Oscar winning turn can’t be too far away but…this ain’t it.
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Now this is the award winning role from this film. And Stephanie Hsu is fantastic in it. It’s a demanding, chaotic role and I was impressed by virtual newcomer Hsu’s commitment and engagement. I think she and Jamie Lee Curtis will split the votes of EEAAO Stans unfortunately so neither has much of a chance. But Stephanie Hsu has a long career ahead of her and this nomination will ensure she’s given the opportunity to show us even more of her considerable talents.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
My Fave: Barry Keoghan
Who Prolly Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Yaaaas Data! Get your life Short Round! This is a delightful, uplifting performance by an actor that taps deep into our nostalgia. Like I said about his co-stars this film put these actors to work requiring physical and emotional variety that other nominees can’t really match. Add his heartbreaking Hollywood redemption arc and he’s the front runniest front runner in the whole show.
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Whereas flashy, busy performances typically win awards, I was completely taken in by the nuance and vulnerability of this performance. In turn hilarious and heartbreaking, there is deep wisdom in this village idiot’s ramblings. Even if it’s not his year, and it probably isn’t, I hope this nomination leads to more mainstream success for Keoghan.
Brendon Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
This entire film is so well acted I’m glad all of the major players were recognized for their outstanding work. Gleeson is the straight man to Colin Farrell’s lovable goof and his frustration with his life’s path and the company he keeps is as relatable as it is tragic. It’s a tremendous performance and the fact that he’s likely relegated to the “honor to be nominated” crowd speaks to the strength of his fellow nominees.
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
This is another small, quiet performance in a small quiet film. Brian Tyree Henry is simply a natural. His authenticity is his strength as he goes toe to toe with Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence, another uncannily natural actor and a surprise snub for this performance. The film took place and was shot in New Orleans and the familiar backdrop made for a fun watch. His nomination is a bit of an outlier and his exclusion from other, pre-Oscar award lists make him long shot.
Judd Hirsch (The Fablemans)
This nomination begs a couple of questions. Like what? And why? Every once in a while these single scene roles garner a nomination but Hirsch’s monologue and scene was one of the cringiest parts of the movie. Add to that he received this spot over co-star Paul Dano, who was excellent in this film and worked way, way harder than Hirsch, is a bigger tragedy than anything on screen. I don’t get it and I don’t think he has a chance. At least I hope not.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Who Should Win: Marcel the Shell With the Shoes On
My Fave: Marcel the Shell With the Shoes On
Who Prolly Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With the Shoes On
I LOVE Marcel! This is an original film in every regard. Jenny Slate and ex husband Dean Fleischer Camp have created the hands down most lovable character of this Oscar season and every season in recent memory. Marcel’s take on life, love and most strikingly loss will change your own perspective. I’m a big fan of Jenny Slate’s oddball brand of humor and Marcel is the very definition of oddball. A cheery, insightful, adorable little oddball. This is the IP I’m rooting for the most in the whole show but a win seems unlikely.
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
The opposite of original, it is in fact the third of three Pinocchio films released in 2022. I appreciate the artistic mastery on display. Stop motion is super tricky and at this level it’s super impressive. But I just hated it. All of it. I hated the music, I hated how devastating it was, i hated how freaky deaky the puppet looked. I hated everything about it. But it undoubtedly will win and maybe that’s okay. Guillermo del Toro is an auteur and has a very specific point of view. Artistic merit should be awarded. I just prefer the more original Marcel by a wide margin.
Turning Red
Not every piece of art is for every person. It’s not surprising I was not able to emotionally invest in an extremely thinly veiled story of a girl’s first menses. But I can appreciate it for what it is, another great Pixar film meant for another audience. And that’s on period. It doesn’t seem like this is Pixar’s year but I doubt it really affects their bottom line.
The Sea Beast
The animation on this film isn’t really up to snuff with the current standard, certainly not Disney or Pixar level or even DreamWorks for that matter. It’s a charming story with some interesting characters and a nothing new message about understanding who the real enemies are. Overall it’s pretty basic and I’d be gooped if it snagged the win.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Didn’t see it. Can’t. Won’t. It’s the one film on the list that I’m not gonna watch. It’s probably great. If it wins I’ll check it out but I somehow just can’t imagine.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Fave: The Banshees of Inisherin
Who Prolly Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Everything Everywhere All At Once
This is easily the most original story of the year so it stands to reason this would be the favored film for this category. Blending several genres, a complicated narrative made easy to understand and a unique but relatable sense of humor to keep the proceedings buoyant – this film has everything. Everywhere. All at…you get it. There are some great scripts in this category but after dominating the rest of the awards season, this is the one to beat.
The Banshees of Inisherin
I’m a theatre kid so I’ve been reading and seeing Martin McDonaugh’s work since college and I appreciate his singular voice and point of view. He manages to find the humor in the brutality of human nature while shining light on the truth and motivations behind our inherent assholiness. This particular script grabbed me from the earliest moments and managed to keep me immersed and riveted throughout. It’s major strength is it’s character specific dialogue that allows us to understand who these people are quickly and fully. It could possibly eke out a win here as a consolation for missing out on some of the larger awards like Best Director and Picture but like I said, I think EEAAO is the easy front runner.
Tar
This film is filled with lengthy, intellectual speeches about the nature of art and the frailty of artists. They are certainly revelatory to the pretentiousness of the classical music world and its titans. Throughout the picture, Tar’s insistence on being the smartest, most powerful person in the room becomes more and more desperate and unhinged. The script purposefully begins a bit over our heads, allowing us the schadenfreude of seeing her disgraceful fall from her lofty heights of intellectual superiority. I suspect that even though this film and it’s creators and stars are excellent on so many levels it will leave this year’s awards empty handed.
The Fablemans
While this picture is excellent in most of the technical categories, its script is fairly saccharine and sentimental as many autobiographies tend to be. Our pasts are really only precious to us but this story is a bit too much so and I had a difficult time really connecting with Spielberg’s story. It fails to find the universality in the specific and a win here would be an underserved upset.
Triangle of Sadness
The general plotting and the biting satire make this script a standout but the dialogue gets a bit lost in translation. It’s painfully obvious that English is not the first language of the film’s creators. Much of the dialogue feels stilted, the phrasing a little strange and off. However the story is timely and funny and while its inclusion in this category isn’t shocking a win most definitely would be.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who Should Win: Women Talking
My Fave: Living
Who Prolly Will Win: Women Talking
Women Talking
I have so much nostalgia for Writer/Director Sarah Polley and her work here is really magnificent. This script places tragically undereducated characters in heavy debate over weighty issues like personal liberty, morality and vengeance. It brings an interesting twist to the old saying “from the mouths of babes.” These women discuss what it means to be a woman, not only in their backwards fundamentalist society but on this planet. It succeeds remarkably well at pulling the universal from the specific. It’s brilliant work and apart from the Best Picture nod it’s been sadly overlooked by the academy. A win for ol Ramona Quimby here would redeem their larger oversight.
Living
It’s unsurprising that screenwriter Kazuo Ishiguro is a Nobel Prize Winner. This film is chock full of beautifully poetic speeches and character specific dialogue. Sadly a win seems a long shot as it hasn’t even been nominated by most of the awards shows including, surprisingly, the Writer’s Guild of America. But if you enjoy thoughtful, poetic writing presented by an exceptional cast you should definitely check this one out.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Many of the reviews I’ve read and watched have specifically pointed out how far from the source material this adaptation is so it surprises my that it’s a contender here. I watched a YouTube video comparing this film and the 1930 film of the same name and source and there is very little dialogue at all in this update. More show than tell. It has had some success in other award shows this season so this could be yet another situation where this one unexpectedly takes the win.
Top Gun: Maverick
There’s a lot about this movie that I loved but the script really isn’t one of them. I appreciate some of the clever throwbacks (“Talk to me dad”) but by and large it was pretty basic action movie swagger and bravado. While I am rooting that some love be shown this movie, I don’t think this is the category for it to shine.
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
I don’t think it has much a chance of winning but I’m excited to see this film here. Hopefully it will encourage the studio to make more of these outrageously fun and stylish murder mysteries. In this film and in the original the joy of the cast is obvious, making them equally joyful for the audience. They’re very fun and very well plotted but not really Oscar caliber.

BEST SONG
Who Should Win: Naatu Naatu
My Fave: Lift Me Up
Who Prolly Will Win: Naatu Naatu
Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This is the only nominated song that appears as a scene in the film and it is a joyous event. A fully choreographed, gigantic Bollywood set piece with tons of dancing extras, this is really a no brainer as it’s the type of showstopper this award was made for. And it is the moment with Tic Tok ready choreo and club ready beats. Hopefully there will be a big production number on the Oscars telecast so people that haven’t caught the film can see for themselves what a clear winner this song is.
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
This song feels most like one I’d find in a “Film Song Treasury” sheet music book back when those were a thing. It’s an evocative ballad that seems specific to Wakanda while also possessing the lyric strength to stand on it’s own. And it’s a gorgeous vocal performance from RiRi, proving once again that she has real singing chops. Like I mentioned above this is kind of a one horse race but I’d be super satisfied if this song surprised with a win.
Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
I cannot as a good homosexual speak ill of the Gaga and honestly there’s no reason to. This is a well written 80’s throwback-ish power ballad and she sings the mess out of it. But outside of the throwback vibe the song isn’t particularly specific to the movie at all. Too love ballady for a movie whose love story is a C or even D plot. It’s a cool albeit lyrically generic song and a great performance but not quite Academy Award level.
This Is A Life (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Like the film it appears in, this is a quirky, eclectic, singular little ditty. Unlike the film, it’s not particularly complex or challenging. There’s not much to it. It echoes the tone of the film very well, possibly the best of the other nominees that aren’t Naatu Naatu, so it’s inclusion here isn’t surprising but a win would be.
Applause (Tell It Like A Woman)
Y’all this is poor Diane Warren’s 14th nomination with zero wins. It appears she’s looking at yet another upset but can we take a moment and just bless her heart? I mean honestly the woman is a hit machine so let her cry into her millions but 13 consecutive losses is a little gut punchy. This song doesn’t even come close to the mega hits she’s written for everybody from Cher to Celine to DeBarge. A win for this snoozy tune would be a slap in the face to the actual classics she’s lost with in the past. For all of us that grew up in the 80’s and 90’s, Dianne Warren is responsible for the soundtrack of our childhood. Look up her discography if you’re not familiar, I promise your response will be something like “dang!” Hopefully her 15th nomination will be the one cuz this song ain’t it.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Who Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
My Fave: Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
Who Prolly Will Win: Elvis
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This is a case of quality AND quantity. Designer Ruth Carter won for the original Black Panther film as well she should have. The originality and creativity are unparalleled, the references are specific and there’s a literal cast of 1000s. The sheer amount of work and creativity on display makes this an easy winner in my mind however other predictions surprisingly don’t place it as such.
Elvis
The articles I’ve read have their bets placed on costumer Catherine Martin who has won in the past for earlier work with director Baz Luhrmann. It wouldn’t be underserved by any means. The recreation of Elvis’s most famous lewks is flawless as is the styling of Elvis and Priscilla throughout. This one also features a huge cast of extras to costume. But I assume many of these clothes were found rather than created, which is why Wakanda Forever’s made from scratch fabrications are much more impressive to me overall.
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
I loved this film! It’s a love letter to the fashion industry and Jenny Beavan’s attention to detail is unmatched. She’s a past winner for Cruella, and her reverence of haute couture is just as evident here. Her recreation of 50’s era Christian Dior fashion are lovingly remade in perfect detail. It’s a real shame this is the only nomination for this lovely, heartwarming movie. A nod for Lesley Manville’s Mrs Harris would have been completely warranted and deserved.
Babylon
Prior nominee Mary Zophres creates a late 20’s menagerie of color and form in this kind of a mess of a movie. I’m sure folks at this level have done their research but many of these costumes, particularly those worn by lead Margot Robbie, felt out of time and way too risqué for the time period. Right or wrong I found them distracting and anachronistic. However this is another huge cast of extras and principles alike so the nomination isn’t surprising. But the lack of cohesion makes it a long shot in my homosexual opinion.
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The specificity of costuming in this picture was vital to the overall storytelling. First time nominee Shirley Kurata does excellent work creating looks for each version of each character that tell us who they are from first sight. The costumes define the characters more in this film than any other nominee. From my research it sounds doubtful she’ll win but her designs are creative and bold and while it might be her first nomination, it definitely won’t be her last.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
What Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
My Fave: Top Gun: Maverick
What Prolly Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar: The Way of Water
Visual effects are these films’ only reason for existing and boatloads of money are spent on the most up to date technology. And they look really neat-o. So it stands to reason that if we’re awarding the “best” in a technology dominant category it’d go to the people that spent the most money. Seems a little soulless as far as art is concerned but if he’s only gonna pump one of these out each decade, I guess it’s fine.
Top Gun: Maverick
What impresses me so much about the effects in this movie is that according to my reading, a surprising number of them are practical, shot with real jets. You don’t even have to be an action fan to appreciate how rad that is. In another year I think this would give the film an edge but I don’t think it’s enough to best the juggernaut that is Avatar.
All Quiet on the Western Front
This film will make some sneak attacks in the technical categories but I don’t think it’ll win here. I mean, looked like war to me but…Avatar. As hard to watch as this movie is, it is undeniably well done in every category. This is a balanced mix of practical and computer effects and with the film’s scale and large cast it was an incredible amount of on set work. A win here would be completely deserved should the Academy decide Avatar ain’t it.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Marvel films have the money behind them similar to Avatar but the speedy production schedules don’t allow for the same level of artistic mastery. If anything scenes featuring the underwater Talokan make Avatar look better by comparison. That said, I think the Black Panther films are singular in the MCU for their originality and creativity. The effects that most impress me, the details of Wakandan society’s mix of advanced technology with the natural landscape of Africa, seem more attributable to the Production Design, a category this film is notably absent from. A win here seems a long shot and would be underserved compared to the competition.
The Batman
What I loved about The Batman is the DIY made from scratch vibe they managed to merge with a well known, kinda played out intellectual property. They made if feel new by looking old. I can’t confirm but it felt like the effects were predominantly practical so that’s impressive. Like Black Panther, it’s visual strength is way more in it’s Production Design but again, it’s not nominated there. I don’t think this film excited anyone enough to garner any wins and it certainly isn’t strong enough to beat Avatar.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Elvis
My Fave: Elvis
Who Prolly Will Win: Babylon
Babylon
Surprising many with a run of pre-Oscars award show wins Florenzia Martin has taken the lead in this category for this Singin in the Rain on mounds of ether and cocaine story. The similarities between this film and previous front runner Elvis are pretty wild. Both recreate classic architecture and show biz settings. Both use a hyper saturated, jewel toned color palette although Babylon is overlayed in a sepia filter where Elvis is more in brilliant technicolor. Overall this movie is a bit of a mess albeit a good looking mess. It’s a close race with both front runners deserving of the prize.
Elvis
Catherine Martin is an Academy favorite for her previous team ups with auteur Baz Luhrmann. Together they create high octane, kaleidoscopic cinema circuit parties which can be hit or miss. Elvis is a big old hit for me as the frenzy and swirls of color helped communicate Elvis’s accelerating spiral down the emotional toilet. It’s a degree or two away from reality and the artificial vibes help illustrate that Elvis is as much myth and legend as he is man. Favored from the start Martin and colleague Karen Murphy aren’t out of the race yet. This will be one to watch.
Avatar: The Way of Water
The original took this prize as well it should have. They’ve created an entire planet and civilization from whole cloth with no source material to base their designs. It’s tough to argue the immersive beauty of Pandora. But this time they basically copy pasted the same designs just put them under water. I’m probably giving it less credit than it deserves but my nature is to reject hyper commercial multi billion dollar computer graphic dominant projects in favor of good old fashioned stagecraft and ingenuity. I don’t think a win is out of the question but I hope not.
All Quiet on the Western Front
This could be one of the categories where this film picks up a surprise win. Like I said before, looked like war to me. It’s certainly an immersive design, putting you in the trenches alongside the tragically young soldiers the film follows. It’s bleak and brutal and devastating and dirty. In an equally distributed category like this a win wouldn’t be at all undeserved.
The Fablemans
This is a strange nomination to me. Not that there’s anything wrong with the suburban 1960’s look and feel of the film, it just doesn’t particularly stand out from any other competently designed film set in the period. The specificity of the houses the family moves between does help to illustrate their upward economic trajectory but again not in any particularly special or exemplary way. It’s the outlier in this category, I don’t think it can compete with the other films nominated.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Who Should Win: Elvis
My Fave: Elvis
Who Prolly Will Win: The Whale
The Whale
In yet another battle between digital and practical effects, prosthetics designer Adrien Morot is noted for pioneering these all digital prosthetics that transformed Brendan Fraser into a morbidly obese recluse. I thought it was waaaaay cooler before I found out it was digital work. And outside of Fraser the rest of the cast was virtually makeupless. It’s still impressive that I could mistake digital renderings for the real stuff and I concede that successful “firsts” are award worthy. It’s a close race but Morot’s ingenuity seems to have the slight edge.
Elvis
I just prefer the old school practical effects. But that’s not the only reason Elvis deserves the trophy. The prosthetics for Elvis required a twenty year age progression, Tom Hanks is virtually unrecognizable as Colonel Tom Parker, the hair on Elvis and Priscilla are equally as evocative as the makeup, there are hundreds of extras in period wigs and makeups. So much craftsmanship and work on display by an army of artists. It’s ingenuity vs artistry. I can’t wait to see how this turns out.
All Quiet on the Western Front
I keep repeating the stealthy power of this film but this is another category where a win wouldn’t be surprising. You got muddy, bloody, gutsy, gore everywhere you look on this set and the mix of digital and practical effects is pretty seamless. It seems like a race between two front runners but a sneak attack isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This nomination is all about the hair and I’m not mad at it. The creatively sculptural hair art is certainly impressive. And the Latin American weaves and paint for the Talokan serve. In both cases the fusion of multiple tribal cultures into a new and specific context make this film an artistic standout in the typically high-tech aesthetic of the MCU. A win isn’t out of the question but it seems a long shot.
The Batman
Then there’s the DCEU. Who even cares? I’m kidding. Although beyond an impressive transformation for Colin Farrell’s Penguin there’s not a whole lot there. Everything Everywhere All At Once had way more going on in the hair and makeup department so I kinda wish they got this spot instead. Definitely an honor to be nominated situation. A HTBNS if you will.